Buybacks have to be funded with new issuance. All Bessent can do is delay it. That’ll increase the risks of the coming Debt Ceiling.

In 9 cities, from Oakland to Jacksonville, condo prices fell by over 20%. In 3 markets in California & Florida, they fell by 30%+.

In another 5 bigger cities, price fell by 10%. But San Francisco powered off the list after AI mania started running the housing market.

The massive piles of dollars getting thrown at AI infrastructure have an effect.

Consumers spent at retailers & restaurants just fine, but Amazon Prime Day and seasonal adjustments wreaked some havoc.

In July, the plunge in energy prices migrated into services via truck transportation services and others.

How Americans are handling their debts.

Vast amounts of cash get moved from Investors to Big Tech via equity and debt sales to be spent in the real economy.

Crackdown on illegal immigration and boomer retirements continued to reduce the labor force, causing unemployment to drop further.

Purchases by Chinese, Canadian, and British buyers have collapsed. Foreign buyers matter in some key submarkets.

The prior interventions failed to permanently turn around the downward spiral of the yen. What’s needed: much tighter monetary policies by the BOJ.

The Fed needs to coalesce and crack down on inflation lest the bond market figures out what’s going on in here… Oops.

Markets were left to their own devices for the first time in a generation after Warsh scuttled forward guidance as part of his Regime Change.

Orders for computer & electronic products; electrical equipment & components; machinery incl. power generation equipment; fabricated metals products; and core capital goods – all surged.

Warsh scuttled forward guidance, markets are on their own. However this comes out, it promises to be a rougher ride, but in a fresh breeze.

The gap between single-family rents and multifamily rents has widened massively. A look at 14 big markets.

And 28 were down from their peaks in prior years, led by Austin -27% and Oakland -25%.

Sales sag in all regions, plunge the most in the Midwest, drop to lowest for June in the South. Demand stuck in the deep-freeze.

The CPI headline does not provide political backing for a politically unpopular rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. Details – such as outliers reverting in a month or two – don’t matter today.

The wholesale price index for used EVs hits $31,156 in June, 61% higher than for ICE vehicles. Consumers are splurging to buy used EVs.

Bessent, rather than touting hocus-pocus shows, should point at the growling bond market as reason to get serious about fiscal consolidation before the bond market starts to bite.

Bessent’s job is to sell these bonds come hell or high water, and at the lowest possible yield.

Stuck in the mud at the bottom for a 4th year, after the 2020-2022 home-price explosion.

In 33 charts. A special word about San Francisco where AI mania trickled down from a "mansion shortage" to mid-tier homes.

Auto loan balances, average amount financed, loan length, credit score, debt-to-income ratio, and delinquencies from subprime to prime.

Why we keep an eye on the housing-debt-to-income ratio.

Mortgage rates at 6.69% are not high. Inflation is high.

Treasury bills outstanding ballooned by $1 trillion year-over-year, to $7 trillion. But total marketable Treasury securities ballooned by $2.5 trillion. So...

With its earnings announcement, it had a few tricks up its sleeve.

Another sign of underlying strength in the labor market.

Warsh wants the bond market to do its job and look at inflation and the economy -- and not at the Fed -- and it’s finally doing it.

But soaring imports (data-center components), a drop in federal government spending, and changes in private inventories ate into GDP growth.

The US added 1.51 million housing units (new construction minus demolitions) in 12 months, homes for 3.5 million people. The population grew by 757,000. And vacant housing units continued to surge.

During the last debt scare, the 10-year yield hit 5%, and the floodgates of demand opened. Now the debt is $6 trillion bigger; no guarantee 5% will open the floodgates again.

AI is used in 68% of occupations representing 88% of US employment, from software developers to farmers, industrial engineers, and foresters. It’s not automating away those jobs but is helping workers do their jobs.

In another 39 bigger cities, condo prices fell by 8% to 14%. A massive hangover after a historic Condo Bubble.

The first shock was due to the supply-chain chaos in 2021 through 2022. The second shock is now, it's huge, and it's due to the AI investment boom.

The plunge in energy prices pushed down overall PPI inflation, to a still very high 5.5%. It has been zigzagging higher since mid-2023.

“Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option,” he said with a sense of urgency.

The strategic and economic importance for the US of US oil & gas production cannot be overemphasized. Canada is #4.

If bond buyers lose confidence, they’ll demand even higher yields. Bessent better watch out with his games.

Hocus pocus works with the bond market only briefly. His last hocus-pocus, the big kahuna US-Japan joint intervention, fizzled in days and bond yields marched higher.

But private-sector holdings remained at huge record, with the big seven financial centers leading the charge.

Bond Vigilantes dissolved long ago into ambient air. But these auction yields make Bessent nervous.

Warsh makes another baby step -- as suggested at his first FOMC meeting.

But inflation thrived in housing, electronics (hit by the AI boom), medical services, auto repair, used vehicles, etc.

Big Tech, after years of incinerating vast amounts of cash with share buybacks, is now raking the cash back in with share sales at sky-high prices.

Looking at them in the context of the rest of the labor market.

Alphabet plans to borrow another $20-25 Billion, on top of the $50 billion in bonds and $85 billion in equity it sold earlier in 2026.

Corporate guidance for capital expenditures keeps getting ratcheted higher and involves massive sums, largely focused on AI infrastructure.

Crude oil exports hit a record of 5.7 MMb/d in May, exports of ultra-low sulfur diesel hit a record 1.54 MMb/d, etc.

“While at some level, we haven't done much in 42 days, the markets have done quite a bit”: Warsh.

Amid general chipmaker bloodbath, SK Hynix and Samsung, which make up half of the index, crashed even more.

In the South, inventory for sale was up 71% from 2019, while sales were down 8%. Homebuilders are very motivated to make deals.

Promising another morose summer in the housing market.

Unabated fears of inflation and worries about the onslaught of new debt keep pushing up long-term yields.

Sales at gas stations were pushed by massive price movements of gasoline; we look at retailer categories separately to sort it out.

How much of that foreign demand for US Treasuries is actually “foreign?” Less than it seems. Here are some clues.

Lots of new supply: Treasury debt of notes and bonds outstanding ballooned by $70 billion this week.

Spring selling season was a dud. But mortgage rates are not high; inflation is high.